UNDER
The Braves are 35-16 and just swept their last three, outscoring opponents 26-8. Washington's pitching is hemorrhaging runs — 7 per game over the last five, and 5.8 on the season. Atlanta's lineup is averaging 6.8 in that same stretch, and at home they've allowed just 3.4 runs per game all year. The model gives Atlanta a 64% win probability, and even if the price is short, the Nationals' arms don't match up.