Thunder
Jalen Williams is a game-time decision, but the Thunder have been road warriors all year — 30-10 away from OKC. They've won 4 of 5, scoring 121.6 per game, and the Spurs just dropped one at home. The model gives OKC a 62% win probability, spotting a 12.8% edge even with Williams' status up in the air. At any reasonable price, the top seed is the play.