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Makar is out and the playoffs change everything — Colorado's 3.7 goals per game in the regular season won't translate directly to this building. Vegas has won four of five, firing at 4.2 goals per game, and they're 20-12-9 at home where the crowd gives them an extra gear. The model sees a 58% win probability and the Knights just went 6-2 against a good team — at plus money, that's the side with real edge here.