Buffalo Sabres

Montréal Canadiens

Buffalo's offense has gone cold at the worst possible time — just 2.8 goals per game over their last five, with Ostlund now out after getting hurt in Game 5 against Boston. Montreal has tightened up defensively, allowing only 2.2 goals per game in that same stretch, and owns a 24-15-2 mark at the Bell Centre. The Habs are playing with structure and confidence, and at home in a playoff game, that edge matters. The model gives them a 58% win probability, and with Buffalo's top-six thinned by injury, this price looks playable.

HOME

Buffalo's offense has gone cold at the worst possible time — just 2.8 goals per game over their last five, with Ostlund now out after getting hurt in Game 5 against Boston. Montreal has tightened up defensively, allowing only 2.2 goals per game in that same stretch, and owns a 24-15-2 mark at the Bell Centre. The Habs are playing with structure and confidence, and at home in a playoff game, that edge matters. The model gives them a 58% win probability, and with Buffalo's top-six thinned by injury, this price looks playable.

UNDER

Buffalo's offense has gone cold at the worst possible time — just 2.8 goals per game over their last five, with Ostlund now out after getting hurt in Game 5 against Boston. Montreal has tightened up defensively, allowing only 2.2 goals per game in that same stretch, and owns a 24-15-2 mark at the Bell Centre. The Habs are playing with structure and confidence, and at home in a playoff game, that edge matters. The model gives them a 58% win probability, and with Buffalo's top-six thinned by injury, this price looks playable.