How our picks are made.

No gut calls, no “locks,” no cherry-picked screenshots. Every Da Vinci Bets pick comes out of the same pipeline: a multi-factor model, a calibrated confidence score, a quality gate — and a public grade after the game, win or lose.

1. Factor models, not hunches

Every game on the board is scored by a machine-learning model trained on years of league results. Each prediction weighs 15-18 factors per game — team strength ratings, current form, injuries and rest, matchup history, home/road splits, and market context — and outputs a probability for each side. We cover moneyline, spread, and totals markets across NBA, NFL, NHL, and MLB, plus ATP/WTA tennis match winners. We don’t offer player props.

2. Calibrated confidence

A raw model probability isn’t a confidence score. Before anything is published, model output passes through a calibration layer — isotonic calibration fit to how past predictions actually resolved, plus per-sport confidence policies (floors and ceilings) that our team maintains from graded results. The goal is simple: when we show a confidence number, it should track reality, not flatter the model. Only the strongest picks earn the HIGH CONVICTION tag, which requires at least 62% calibrated confidence.

3. Quality gates — and paused markets

Picks below our minimum confidence and edge floors are never shown. And when a whole market runs below our accuracy bar over a graded sample, we pause it entirely rather than keep publishing losers — the page shows an honest empty state instead of a pick we wouldn’t bet ourselves.

Currently paused — below our accuracy bar

  • NBA spreads
  • NBA totals
  • MLB spreads
  • MLB totals

Paused markets return only when they clear the bar again on graded results. This list is generated from the same configuration that gates the live product.

4. Every pick graded in public

After the final whistle, an automated settlement system grades every published pick against the closing result — no manual edits, no quiet deletions. Wins and losses both land on our public track record, which is built from the same settlement data that powers the product. If a stretch goes badly, it shows.

What we do not do

  • No guarantees

    Sports outcomes are inherently uncertain. A 62% confidence pick loses often — that's what 62% means. Past performance never guarantees future results.

  • No “locks”

    We publish probabilities, not certainties. Anyone selling a “guaranteed lock” is selling something else.

  • Not a sportsbook

    Da Vinci Bets is an analytics product. We don't accept, place, or facilitate wagers of any kind.

  • No hidden losses

    Losing picks stay on the track record forever. We don't retro-edit, delete, or restart the count.

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About Da Vinci Bets

Da Vinci Bets is operated by Da Vinci Bets LLC, based in Orlando, Florida. We build and maintain the prediction models, calibration systems, and settlement pipeline described on this page, and we publish the results — good and bad — at davincibets.io/track-record.

Questions about our methodology, data, or track record: support@davincibets.io