AWAY
The Mets are 7-3 in their last 10, while the Marlins are 3-7 and riding a three-game losing streak. New York's offense has erupted for 6.5 runs per game over that stretch, and Miami's pitching has surrendered 6.1. The model gives the Mets a 54% win probability, a slim but clear edge. With the form gap this wide, the moneyline price holds value.