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Arizona enters on a five-game heater, bludgeoning opponents by 3.6 runs per contest. Colorado is 9-17 on the road and has dropped three straight, getting outscored 6.2 to 3.6 in that skid. With the Diamondbacks 16-9 at Chase Field, this is a clear mismatch — the moneyline price reflects a fair 60% win probability, but the on-field gap feels wider.