Diamondbacks
Arizona's pitching has quietly tightened up — just 3 runs allowed per game over their last five. Colorado is 3-7 in their last ten and bleeding 6.5 runs per game in that stretch, even at altitude. The Diamondbacks are the better team and the model gives them a 60% win probability, which feels right against a Rockies squad that's 8-11 at home. At a reasonable price, Arizona is the play.