Blue Jays
Two 19-24 teams stumbling through May, but the Tigers are 12-6 at home while the Blue Jays are a brutal 6-13 on the road. Toronto's offense has been volatile — they hung 14 runs two games ago but scored 1 or fewer in three of their last five. Detroit can't hit right now, averaging 2.8 runs over their last five. The model sees a 57% edge for Toronto, but that road record is hard to ignore. At near-even money, the Tigers' home form against a bad road team looks like the sharper side.